Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
- Analyses on the Impacts of Trump’s Proposed Ultimate Solutionby Menzie Chinn on November 9, 2024 at 11:37 pm
Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need for facts. I recommend EconoFact’s Immigration page as a start for your analysis. In addition, McKibben, Hogan and Noland (2024) analyzed the economic ramifications of a couple deportation scenarios: 1.3 mn, and 8.3 mn.
- The Recession Call Revisitedby Menzie Chinn on November 9, 2024 at 10:04 pm
There was a noisy minority of analysts thinking we were in, or imminently in, recession (see a list here). It’ll be interesting to see how those views are revised. However, as I noted, while the data was not supportive of being in a recession as of October, three possibilities could reconcile observations with such views:
- “The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022by Menzie Chinn on November 8, 2024 at 6:40 am
Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to all by next summer. It will then be declared by year’s end. The following year it could become backdated with data revisions that take us to 2022. At that point, it will become obvious to
- Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0by Menzie Chinn on November 7, 2024 at 10:36 pm
A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of GDP (blue), and as share of potential GDP (red). NBER peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO, NBER and author’s calculations.
- Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMCby Menzie Chinn on November 7, 2024 at 6:41 pm
As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED. Figure 2: 10yr-2yr Treasury term spread (blue, left scale), ten year TIPS yield (red, right scale), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED. Inflation expectations (at least a proxy) are up, as expected. However, term spreads
- Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?by Menzie Chinn on November 5, 2024 at 10:30 pm
Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John Williamson at ShadowStats. Now it’s EJ Antoni at Heritage Foundation (who touts the use of Primerica’s everyday price index). But the American Institute for Economic Research’s “Everyday Price Index” (EPI) says
- Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0by Menzie Chinn on November 4, 2024 at 11:35 pm
Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10% tariffs, in GDP and inflation (deviation from baseline): Additional 60% tariffs on Chinese imported goods. From Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024): And we haven’t even considered the economic
- Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Cornby Menzie Chinn on November 4, 2024 at 6:02 pm
From the National Corn Growers Association: U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country, together they account for about one-fourth of total U.S. agricultural export value. As such, a repeated tariff-based approach to addressing trade with China places a target on both U.S. soybeans and
- Recession after the Election?by Menzie Chinn on November 3, 2024 at 6:07 pm
Charles Payne joins the recession camp. Current indicators are not very supportive of an imminent recession: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), civilian employment adding number of workers indicating unemployed due to weather (orange square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers
- Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)by Menzie Chinn on November 3, 2024 at 12:13 am
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50. Both markets accessed 7:05pm CT on 11/2/2024. I think the news in question is here. Smaller moves on Kalshi (55.2to 52.9 for Trump). No change on Polymarket.
Conversable Economist In Hume’s spirit, I will attempt to serve as an ambassador from my world of economics, and help in “finding topics of conversation fit for the entertainment of rational creatures.”
- Are Theme Park Rides a Giffen Good?by conversableeconomist on November 8, 2024 at 5:12 pm
It is canonical among economists that as the price of a good rises, the quantity demanded of that good falls (other factors held equal). The underlying logic is that a higher price for a certain good has two effects. The “substitution effect” is that a higher price for a certain good causes potential buyers to … Continue reading Are Theme Park Rides a Giffen Good? The post Are Theme Park Rides a Giffen Good? first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- Fall 2024 Journal of Economic Perspectives Free Onlineby conversableeconomist on November 6, 2024 at 3:54 pm
I have been the Managing Editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives since the first issue in Summer 1987. The JEP is published by the American Economic Association, which decided back in 2011–to my delight–that the journal would be freely available online, from the current issue all the way back to the first issue. You can download individual … Continue reading Fall 2024 Journal of Economic Perspectives Free Online The post Fall 2024 Journal of Economic Perspectives Free Online first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- Housing: Supply Chasing Demandby conversableeconomist on November 5, 2024 at 10:52 pm
To explain the high and rising price of housing, the standard economic intuition is that growth in supply isn’t keeping up with growth in demand. One piece of evidence supporting this intuition is the “vacancy rate”–that is, what share of owner-occupied housing or rental housing is empty? Here are a couple of figures from the … Continue reading Housing: Supply Chasing Demand The post Housing: Supply Chasing Demand first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- How Much Money from a Confiscatory Tax on the Uber-Wealthy?by conversableeconomist on November 4, 2024 at 4:00 pm
Every now and then, I hear proposals to fund some program by taxing the wealthy–or even just confiscating wealth above a certain level. For the purposes of this post, I’m not interested in the question of whether this tax would be a good idea. (Shocking disclosure: I don’t think it’s a good idea.) I just … Continue reading How Much Money from a Confiscatory Tax on the Uber-Wealthy? The post How Much Money from a Confiscatory Tax on the Uber-Wealthy? first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- A Benefits Cliff in Washington, DCby conversableeconomist on November 1, 2024 at 3:00 pm
Government attempts to assist household with low incomes face an inevitable practical problem. As income for a household rises, it will be necessary to phase out the government assistance. But what happens if–at least over a certain range of incomes–a previously low-income household that increases its earnings discovers that its government benefits are being decreased … Continue reading A Benefits Cliff in Washington, DC The post A Benefits Cliff in Washington, DC first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Future of Workby conversableeconomist on October 31, 2024 at 3:00 pm
I occasionally pause for a moment to remember that just a few years ago, before we were concerned that AI would take all the jobs, we were worried that new robotics technologies would take all the jobs. And before that, we were worried that automation would take all the jobs. Can we learn something from … Continue reading The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Future of Work The post The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Future of Work first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- A Federal Guarantee of Paid Vacation?by conversableeconomist on October 30, 2024 at 4:25 pm
The rules governing the US labor market are just different from other high-income countries in some way. One difference involves paid time off. Here’s a figure from Betsey Stevenson, “A federal guarantee for earned paid time off” (Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution, October 2024). You will notice that in this comparison across various high-income … Continue reading A Federal Guarantee of Paid Vacation? The post A Federal Guarantee of Paid Vacation? first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- The National Childcare Program During World War IIby conversableeconomist on October 28, 2024 at 5:46 pm
The United States has had a nationwide childcare program at one time in its history: a temporary program during World War II. Tim Sablik of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond tells the story and summarizes some economic research on the topic in “When Uncle Sam Watched Rosie’s Kids: To support women working on the … Continue reading The National Childcare Program During World War II The post The National Childcare Program During World War II first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- Larry Summers on the Economics of AIby conversableeconomist on October 23, 2024 at 2:00 pm
Joe Walker serves as interlocutor in “Larry Summers — AGI and the Next Industrial Revolution” (The Joe Walker Podcast, October 22, 2024). Here are a couple of points that caught my eye, but there is much more in the interview itself. Here’s Summers on the long-term increase in economic output over time and the interrelationship … Continue reading Larry Summers on the Economics of AI The post Larry Summers on the Economics of AI first appeared on Conversable Economist.
- A Prescription for Fixing the US Healthcare Systemby conversableeconomist on October 22, 2024 at 5:13 pm
Among the major issues not being discussed in the US presidential campaign are those facing the US healthcare system. The two main concerns are well-known. One is high cost. The US economy spends about $12,500 per person on health care in 2022, according to the OECD. The second- and third-highest countries, Switzerland and Germany, spend … Continue reading A Prescription for Fixing the US Healthcare System The post A Prescription for Fixing the US Healthcare System first appeared on Conversable Economist.